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Thur 11.15.2007

Barrick Says Gold Supply to Fall Faster Than Expected
Barrick Gold Corp., the world's largest gold producer, said supply will fall faster than expected as it gets harder to extract the precious metal from deeper and older mines. ``Global mine supply is going to fall at a much faster rate than people generally believe,'' Chief Executive Officer Greg Wilkins said today at a conference in London organized by RBC Capital Markets. ``Many of the mines that people are anticipating bringing into production will either not come into production or will be on a much longer timeframe.'' Gold mining companies are trying to boost output after bullion climbed to within 0.5 percent of a record last week. Strikes, stoppages and the difficulties of mining farther underground are hampering operations in South Africa, the world's largest producer. Demand is rising as consumption increases in China, India and the Middle East, RBC Capital Markets said yesterday.

Gold, Ron Paul and Prosperity
Candidate Ron Paul understands inflation as the creation of money out of thin air. While this view depicts a disturbing state of affairs and has a distinguished history, it is not in the least popular. For one thing, it tends to incriminate the money creators. If inflation is defined as price increases, by coincidence the guilt falls on those who raise prices. So it is no surprise that inflation is widely defined as an increase in the level of prices. How is this "price level" measured? The Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics ( BLS ) produces a statistic called the Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) that’s supposed to give us a handle on prices and therefore inflation.

Central Banks and Gold: Manipulation or Money Management?
Gold has had a great run lately. As I have indicated previously, if you look at the long term monthly chart of gold, $700 provides major resistance, as gold has never stayed above $700 for over a month in its entire history - neither in 1980 nor in 2006, until now. This is the main reason why it had taken over a year to overcome it, and the reason of the current explosive upward movement. Now we have expanded the chart upward beyond the $700 line into the new, uncharted territory, gold will possibly never go below $700 again. Fundamentally, from a pure demand and supply point of view, as described nicely by Sun Valley Gold hedge fund, gold has "the elasticity of a positively sloped investment demand function that overwhelms the inelasticity of supply." That is exactly what has happened during last 6 years of gold's bull market.

U.A.E. May Peg to Currency Basket, Al-Suwaidi Says
The United Arab Emirates may end the dirham's 30-year-old peg to the dollar and link it instead to a basket of currencies, central bank Governor Sultan Bin Nasser al- Suwaidi said. The falling dollar will trigger a ``review'' of the U.A.E.'s dollar peg, al-Suwaidi said in an interview in Gwacheon, South Korea today, signaling for the first time that the U.A.E. may drop the dirham's link to the U.S. currency in the near future. A switch by the U.A.E. would follow Kuwait, which ended the fixed exchange rate for the dinar in May. The dollar has fallen 10 percent against euro this year, making imports for the Gulf Arab states more expensive and helping push inflation in the U.A.E. to the second-highest in the region.

Jim Rogers Urges People to Sell U.S. Dollar Holdings
Investor Jim Rogers urged people to get out of the dollar and says he expects to be rid of all his U.S. currency assets by summer next year. ``If you have dollars, I urge you to get out,'' Rogers said in an interview from Singapore. He is chairman of New York-based Rogers Holdings, formerly known as Beeland Interests Inc. ``That's not a currency to own.'' The dollar fell 9.5 percent this year against a basket of six major currencies as a housing slump slowed the economy and losses stemming from subprime mortgage defaults spread among U.S. banks. Rogers, who said last month he was shifting out of all his dollar assets, plans to buy commodities, Japan's yen, the Chinese yuan and the Swiss franc.

Is China Really Dumping the Dollar? US TIC Flows Will Tell Us on Friday
After Thursday’s US CPI report, Friday’s event risk may not seem like such a big deal. However, quite the opposite is true as it will be very important to see if net long-term TIC flows can turn positive after plummeting $69.3 billion in August. Indeed, Japan, China and Taiwan sold US Treasuries at the fastest pace in at least five years in August as losses linked to US subprime mortgages sparked a global credit crunch and serious bout of risk aversion.The widespread flight away from Treasuries only exacerbated the biggest sell-off in US financial assets since Russia defaulted in 1998, sparking a massive slump in the greenback to record lows against the Euro.

HSBC writes off $38m a day in US loans and says it could get worse
HSBC is writing off loans to struggling Americans at the rate of $38 million (£18.5 million) a day, it revealed yesterday, shareholders were told that the pace of souring loans could worsen if house prices in the United States fall further. Defaults and late payments on US sub-prime mortgages and credit cards increased in the third quarter, leading the world’s second-biggest bank to take a provision of $3.4 billion against American consumer debt. It wrote down $925 million from unsuccessful trading in credit securities and on leveraged buyout loans that it has extended but been unable to syndicate because of the credit crunch.
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