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Wed 03.26.2008

Metals - Gold rises as dollar weakness continues to spur buying
Gold rose while the dollar remained weak, oil prices ticked up and fund money returned to the commodity sector. Bullion fell over 10 pct last week from record highs above 1,000 usd as players took profits but gold's main drivers -- a weak dollar, persistent economic weakness and high oil prices -- remain supportive for the metal. 'The weakening dollar and the rise in oil prices as well as firmer prices across the agricultural sector supported gold's recovery yesterday and ongoing inflationary concerns coupled with safe-haven buying are likely to underpin gold prices over the forthcoming months,' said Barclays Capital analysts.Gold moves in the opposite direction to the dollar, as it is seen as an alternative asset, and in line with oil prices, as bullion is bought as a hedge against energy-led inflation.

Gold has potential to double: UBS
Gold may have eased back from last week’s record high of US$1,030.80 an ounce, but the yellow metal is well positioned for growth and could potentially double in price, Tony Lesiak, analyst at UBS, says in a note to investors. Mr. Lesiak says gold appears relatively cheap compared to oil on a historical basis, holding the potential for gold to more than double to levels where it will regain its long term average relationship. However, he said the price of gold was hard to call at present and prices may not move much in the coming weeks."In the near-term, fundamental value will not mean very much: positioning and the need to raise liquidity will determine what happens to precious metals - and indeed other asset classes," Mr. Lesiak says.

Wall Street May Face $460 Bln in Losses, Goldman
Wall Street banks, brokerages and hedge funds may report $460 billion in credit losses from the collapse of the subprime mortgage market, or almost four times the amount already disclosed, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Profits will continue to wane, other analysts said. ``There is light at the end of the tunnel, but it is still rather dim,'' Goldman analysts including New York-based Andrew Tilton said in a note to investors today. They estimated that residential mortgage losses will account for half the total, and commercial mortgages as much as 20 percent. Earnings and share prices at U.S. financial institutions tumbled in the past year as fallout from the mortgage crisis spread to other markets. Demand for mortgage-backed securities evaporated, leading to the collapse of Bear Stearns Cos., once that market's largest underwriter, and a Federal Reserve-led bailout by JPMorgan Chase & Co. earlier this month.

Hoarding by banks stokes fear over crisis
Central banks' efforts to ease strains in the money markets are failing to stop financial institutions from hoarding cash, stoking fears that the recent respite in equity markets may not signal the end of the credit crisis.Banks' borrowing costs - a sign of their willingness to lend to each other - in the US, eurozone and the UK rose again even after the Federal Reserve's unprecedented activity in lending to retail and investment banks against weaker than usual collateral and similar action in Europe.The continued friction in the money markets came even as stock markets were showing new signs of optimism in spite of fresh data from the US showing consumers at their most pessimistic for 35 years and house prices falling at the fastest rate on record.

FDIC to boost staffing in bank failures
Federal banking regulators will hire 140 new employees in an effort to reassure the public they are well-positioned to deal with a possible increase in bank failures over the next year, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said Tuesday. The agency will increase the staff of the Division of Resolution and Receiverships by 60%, most of who would be temporary and based in Dallas. "We want to make sure that we're prepared," said FDIC Chief Operating Officer John Bovenzi, quoted by the Associated Press in a story published earlier Tuesday. Last month, the FDIC said it would attempt to rehire 25 former employees specializing in bank insolvency. Those 25 retirees are included in the 140 total new hires.

Demand for durable goods falls 1.7% in Feb.
Demand for machinery and other capital goods sank in February, driving orders for durable goods down 1.7%, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. The unexpected decline in orders for big-ticket items marked the second straight monthly drop, an indication that domestic demand is weakening faster than exports can grow. "This is another report that has a strong recessionary feel about it," wrote John Ryding, chief U.S. economist for Bear Stearns. "The data strongly suggest that the period of retrenchment in the manufacturing sector is likely to get far worse before things stabilize," wrote Joseph Brusuelas, chief U.S. economist for IDEAglobal. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had been looking for total orders to rise 0.5% after a revised 4.7% decline in January.

New-home sales fall to 13-year low
Sales of new homes in the United States fell to a 13-year low in February, dropping 1.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday. Sales have fallen four months in a row and are off about 30% in the past year. The number of homes on the market dropped by 2.1% to 471,000, the lowest since July 2005. This indicates builders are trying to work off their bloated inventories of unsold homes. However, the pace of sales has slowed even more. Inventory represented a 9.8-month supply at the February sales rate, unchanged from January and the highest since 1981. Inventories are likely understated, also because of cancellations.
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